Presented by: Lieschen Venter (PhD Operations Research), Senior Lecturer in Operations Research at Stellenbosch University and Director of Systems Thinking for Education Policy (STEP) research group
Thank you very much Lieschen for your insightful presentation on ‘Thinking in Systems, When Decisions are Complex’ at the BarnOwl info-sharing event held on 11th June 2026. Thank you to all those who attended the session.
Thinking in Systems when Decisions are Complex
Organisations make decisions in environments where causes and effects are not straightforward. Actions interact, consequences unfold over time, and outcomes are shaped by feedback, delay, and accumulation. In these settings, it is often difficult to see why sensible decisions lead to disappointing or unintended results. The session explored how systems thinking can help organisations understand and manage complex problems more effectively.
1. Why Systems Thinking Matters
Traditional decision-making often assumes that:
- Variables are independent.
- Cause and effect are simple and linear.
- Changes produce immediate results.
- More input automatically produces proportionally better outcomes.
In reality, complex systems do not work this way. Variables are interconnected, influence each other through feedback loops, and often exhibit delays and non-linear behaviour. This complexity makes it difficult for humans to accurately predict outcomes through intuition alone.
The presentation emphasised that enterprise risk management, organisational performance, and societal challenges all involve interconnected systems where actions in one area can create unintended consequences elsewhere.
2. Key Principles of Systems Thinking
Interdependence
All elements within a system affect one another. For example, in education, teacher quality, parental involvement, resources, and learner motivation all interact and reinforce one another.
Feedback Loops
Systems are governed by feedback mechanisms. Understanding these loops allows decision-makers to identify where interventions can have the greatest impact:
- Reinforcing loops (virtuous or vicious cycles): Success can lead to more success, while failure can accelerate decline.
- Balancing loops: Mechanisms that stabilise a system and prevent runaway growth or decline.
Delays
Most interventions take time before results become visible. Decision-makers often abandon initiatives too early because they expect immediate outcomes.
Non-Linearity
Small interventions can sometimes have major effects, while large investments may produce limited returns. System behaviour is rarely proportional or predictable.
3. Human Decision-Making Traps
The presentation highlighted several common mistakes:
Doing Nothing
Assuming that a functioning system will continue to perform without maintenance is dangerous. Many organisational systems deteriorate over time without maintenance and adaptation.
Reacting Only to Crises
Waiting until warning signs become obvious often means the system has already lost significant momentum, requiring much larger investments to recover.
Pursuing Silver Bullets
Focusing all resources on one perceived solution rarely succeeds because complex systems require coordinated interventions across multiple areas.
Expecting Immediate Results
Even when the correct actions are taken, improvements may only become visible much later.
These lessons are highly applicable to organisations, risk management programmes, and public sector institutions.
4. Systems Modelling and Simulation
The presentation demonstrated techniques that help decision-makers move beyond intuition and test strategies systematically:
- Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs): Visual models showing relationships between variables and feedback loops.
- System Dynamics Simulation: Mathematical models that allow organisations to perform “what-if” analysis and test policy decisions before implementation.
- Digital Twins: Simulated representations of real-world systems used to understand complexity and predict outcomes.
5. Important Lessons for Organisations and Risk Management
Several practical insights emerged:
Maintain Systems Proactively
Preventative maintenance and early intervention are significantly more effective than attempting recovery after system failure.
Understand Root Causes
Problems that appear as one-off events often indicate underlying structural issues that have been developing for years.
Think Long-Term
Policies and interventions require patience. Their benefits may only become visible after considerable delays.
Intervene Across Multiple Areas
Sustainable improvement requires coordinated action across the entire system rather than isolated interventions.
Beware of Unintended Consequences
Systems often respond to incentives differently than intended. Examples discussed included:
- Rewarding rat tails in Hanoi, which resulted in people breeding rats.
- Road widening projects that often increase traffic demand rather than reduce congestion.
- Controlled burns in environmental management that may appear counterintuitive but prevent larger disasters.
6. Implications for Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
The principles of systems thinking closely align with enterprise risk management:
- Risks are interconnected rather than independent.
- Actions in one area can create unintended consequences elsewhere.
- Organisations contain reinforcing and balancing feedback loops.
- Early intervention and ongoing maintenance are essential.
- Decision-making must consider upstream and downstream impacts.
- Sustainable risk management requires a holistic, integrated approach rather than isolated fixes.
Conclusion
The overarching message of the presentation was that complex systems cannot be managed through intuition, linear thinking, or isolated interventions. Effective decision-making requires understanding feedback loops, delays, interdependencies, and system structure, and then applying early, sustained, and coordinated interventions across the entire system.
Presentation, video and other useful links
Please see attached presentation here, and the info sharing recording here.
The future of GRC – Key Insights
Integrated GRC – Powering Resilience, Performance and Growth
STEP (Systems Thinking for Education Policy)
Contact us
Cheryl Keller | BarnOwl | cheryl@barnowl.co.za
Lieschen Venter | Senior Lecturer: Stellenbosch University | Operations Research |Tel: +27 21 808 4019 | lventer@sun.ac.za
Thank you
Once again, thank you Lieschen for your time and for your informative presentation and thank you to all those who attended our info sharing session. We look forward to seeing you at our next info sharing session. Please keep a look out for our upcoming events at: http://www.barnowl.co.za/events/
About the presentation and our guest speaker
